7/3/2022 A Bunch in the Fist is Better than One in the Hand

AUTHOR: TOWNEWEALTHMANAGEMENT.NET/BLOG 7/3/2022 Towne Wealth Management BLOG: 

A Bunch in the Fist is Better than One in the Hand

The ‘fist of recession’ is…. not…upon us, yet, says Deloitte 6/27/2022.  Deloitte’s conclusion is based on several historical indicators:

First, is the Sahm Rule: this is where the unemployment rate would have to rise from 3.6% in May to 5.1% in June, which is unlikely, to suggest a recession.

Secondly, is the Inversion Rule: here, the two-year yield would have to exceed the 10-year yield to indicate the start of a recession….not happening consistently

Also, we have a plethora of positive economic indicators: like…. the daily number of people passing through airport security checkpoints rising, the weekly ticket sales at movie theatres are above the pre-pandemic levels and the weekly hotel occupancy rates are continuing to rise. Therefore, consumers don’t appear to be backing away from services.

But,on the other hand….. you’ve got this lousy sign: a housing pullback: yes, the housing industry is now showing signs of stress, due, most likely, to the tightening of monetary policy that has boosted the average mortgage interest rates.

So, a bunch in the fist is better than one in a hand….?

or something like that….. for now…

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The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial and based on the political content of this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. 

Russell E. Towne, LPL Financial Advisor, is a registered representative with and Securities and Advisory Services offered through LPL Financial, a Registered Investment Advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC. 

The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL.